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Iran Nuclear Deal — Alive or Dead?

Though every Republican in Congress voted against the Iran nuclear deal, “Tearing it up … is not going to happen,” says Sen. Bob Corker, chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee.

Hopefully, the chairman speaks for the president-elect.

During the campaign, Donald Trump indicated as much, saying that, though the U.S. got jobbed in the negotiations — “We have a horrible contract, but we do have a contract” — he might not walk away.

To Trump, a deal’s a deal, even a bad one. And we did get taken.

In 2007 and 2011, all 17 U.S. intelligence agencies assured us, “with high confidence,” that Iran did not have an atomic bomb program.

Yet our folks forked over $50 billion for an Iranian show and tell to prove they were not doing what our 17 intelligence agencies told us, again and again, they were not doing.

Why did we disbelieve our own intelligence, and buy into the “Chicken Little” chatter about Iran being “only months away from a bomb”?

Corker also administered a cold shower to those who darkly warn of a secret Iranian program to produce a bomb: “In spite of all the flaws in the agreement, nothing bad is going to happen relative to nuclear development in Iran in the next few years. It’s just not.”

Under the deal, Iran has put two-thirds of the 19,000 centrifuges at Natanz in storage, ceased enriching uranium to 20 percent at Fordow, poured concrete into the core of its heavy water reactor at Arak, and shipped 97 percent of its enriched uranium out of the country. Cameras and United Nations inspectors are all over the place.

Even should Iran decide on a crash program to create enough fissile material for a single A-bomb test, this would take a year, and we would know about it.

But why would they? After all, there are sound reasons of state why Iran decided over a decade ago to forego nuclear weapons.

Discovery of a bomb program could bring the same U.S. shock and awe as was visited on Iraq for its nonexistent WMD. Discovery would risk a pre-emptive strike by an Israel with scores of nuclear weapons. Saudi Arabia and Turkey would have a powerful inducement to build their own bombs.

Acquiring a nuclear weapon would almost surely make Iran, a Persian nation on the edge of a sea of Arabs, less secure.

If, however, in the absence of a violation of the treaty by Iran, we tore up the deal, we could find ourselves isolated. For Britain, France and Germany also signed, and they believe the agreement is a good one.

Do we really want to force these NATO allies to choose between the deal they agreed to and a break with the United States?

If the War Party is confident Iran is going to cheat, why not wait until they do. Then make our case with evidence, so our allies can go with us on principle, and not from pressure.

Also at issue is the deal signed by Boeing to sell Iran 80 jetliners. Airbus has contracted to sell Iran 100 planes, and begun delivery. List price for the two deals: $34.5 billion. Tens of thousands of U.S. jobs are at stake.

Is a Republican Congress prepared to blow up the Boeing deal and force the Europeans to cancel the Airbus deal?

Why? Some contend the planes can be used to transport the Iranian Republican Guard. But are the Iranians, who are looking to tourism, trade and investment to rescue their economy, so stupid as to spend $35 billion for troop transports they could buy from Vladimir Putin?

The Ayatollah’s regime may define itself by its hatred of the Great Satan. Still, in 2009, even our War Party was urging President Obama to publicly back the Green Movement uprising against the disputed victory of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

In 2013, moderates voted Hassan Rouhani into the presidency, where he began secret negotiations with the USA.

New elections will be held this year. And while the death of ex-President Rafsanjani this weekend has removed the powerful patron of Rouhani and strengthened the hard-liners, Ayatollah Khamenei is suffering from cancer, and the nation’s future remains undetermined.

Iran’s young seek to engage with the West. But if they are spurned, by the cancellation of the Boeing deal and the reimposition of U.S. sanctions, they will be disillusioned and discredited, and the mullahs will own the future.

How would that serve U.S. interests?

We still have sanctions on Iran for its missile tests in violation of Security Council resolutions, for its human rights violations, and for its support of groups like Hezbollah. But we also have in common with Iran an enmity for the Sunni terrorists of al-Qaida and ISIS.

We are today fighting in Libya, Yemen, Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan, as the War Party works to confront Beijing in the South China Sea, Russia in Ukraine and North Korea over its nuclear and missile tests.

Could we perhaps put the confrontation with Iran on hold?

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Patrick Buchanan
Patrick Buchanan has been a senior advisor to three Presidents, a two-time candidate for the Republican presidential nomination, and was the presidential nominee of the Reform Party in 2000.
  • 4freedom

    Whats going to end up dead is US!

  • Tim Kern

    Iran doesn’t need to develop its own nuclear weapons technology, even though the provisions of the Obama/Kerry deal seem to give them warning of any inspections and the right to delay them further.
    Since we gave Iran billions in cash, Iran can buy all the nukes it needs from other sources.

  • RobfromVA

    For someone who has been around the world for many decades, you appear very naive! How can anyone with any intelligence, claim any deal that gives the largest terrorist nation in the world billions of dollars, is anything but insane! That kind of money might very well make an explosion of a small boat load of low grade uranium near one of our major cities possible! Who needs to kill anyone when you can make an entire city inhabitable while collapsing the economy of the “Great Satan?”

    Striking a deal with a group of suicidal people shouting “death to the infidel” in the name of their god allah, is lunacy!! Committing suicide merely brings them greater rewards in their delusional here after! So what action bringing death upon them do they fear? YOU CAN’T NEGOTIATE A DEAL WITH SOMEONE WHO IS DELUSIONALLY SUICIDAL!

    I agree that the deal has done one thing, it bought us a few years, but that’s all. At the end of the treaty Iran will be almost guaranteed a nuke! Israel, which is feeling NATO / US support withdraw for their nation, will take care of the problem quickly and decisively! The war that may very well spawn from that confrontation will be much worse than holding Iran’s feet to the fire now and forever!!!!

    When will you and the rest of the blind political hacks understand that islam itself is our enemy! Any deal made with an islamic nation will be nothing but a sham as they are instructed to lie to further the cause of allah!

    • Bill Von Gremp

      ie Taqiya

  • William B Stoecker

    I almost always agree with Mr. Buchanan, but perhaps he trusts both the tireheads and our intelligence agencies a bit too much. Regarding our agencies, the first Director of the FBI, J. Edgar Hoover, was a well-connected Washington lawyer who had never been a street cop, served in the military, or worked at any manual labor job. In short, he was a devious, weak little mama’s boy, and almost certainly a homosexual. The FBI murdered an unarmed woman at Ruby Ridge and let the terrorists bomb the WTC the first time. They ignored warnings from their own agents prior to 9/11. And this is only part of their sorry record.
    The CIA is descended directly from the WWII OSS (Office of Strategic Services), which was staffed at the highest levels by wealthy members of the East Coast establishment (hence its nickname, “Oh So Social”). And, from the start, it was riddled with communists. The CIA failed to warn us about either WTC bombing or the menace posed by Castro, or, later, the tireheads, or to tell the truth about Saddam Hussein’s alleged “weapons of mass destruction.” Now they are so politicized that they parrot the Demoncrap line about Putin stealing the election from the Witch.

    • Bill Von Gremp

      Your comments are very interesting. Some of my colleagues and I have been wondering why Trump was acting the way he was towards the CIA recently. What you wrote sheds some new light on the subject for us and helps explain why Trump is dubious of swallowing hook, line and sinker what the CIA has to say about the e-mail hacking.

  • Bill Von Gremp

    Pat used to have a different euphemism for what he now calls the “War Party”….remember his use of the term “Amen corner”? Both phrases are mostly apt. Can you guess where I heard Pat say “Amen corner” about a hundred times? I will give you a hint…”Issue one!!”.